WebConnect

18 December 2009

It appears as though COP-15 is nearing its end-game. Ministers and heads of state have re-drafted the text for a leaders' statement which we referred to earlier this afternoon, and have reportedly removed any reference to a deadline by which a post-2012 agreement must be reached.There are still no quantified aggregate targets for emissions reductions in the draft.

The new text is being drafted by a groups of 26 leaders, we hear, and developing countries are again unhappy at being excluded from the process.There's a real danger this could backfire once the COP president re-convenes the plenary to try to bring this conference to a close.

The UNFCCC is trying to work out how to close this conference. Both the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP texts, which appear to have been abandoned for the moment as leaders focus on a face-saving political statement, will need to be "parked" somewhere, ready to be brought out next year when talks resume. Will developing countries agree to this?

We think not. When Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen proposes that the CMP plenary closes, we expect there to be a chorus of "no" from a wide coalition of developing and small states. We're mindful of the fact that Tuvalu still has not succeeded in bringing its proposed revisions to the Kyoto Protocol, and its proposed new protocol for major developing countries, to the conference floor for a formal discussion.

Tuvalu's Prime Minister Apisai Ielemia yesterday told a press conference that he would not agree to any deal that did not keep global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius - a steeper target than the more widely-accepted 2 degrees. Tuvalu's proposal specifically targets no more than 1.5 degrees.

Tuvalu will no doubt be supported by other small island developing states, such as Grenada, the Bahamas and the Marshall Islands. We may also see Sudan, which is leading the Group of 77 this year, weighing in on this and other issues. The OPEC countries are also likely to intervene.

In fact, developing countries as a whole may well refuse to let Prime Minister Rasmussen close the CMP, and this will delay any effort to close the COP as well. Developing countries insist that the CMP business, which includes the AWG-KP's report is dealt with first, before the COP and its controversial AWG-LCA text are dealt with.

The tension is mounting within the Bella Center. People are remembering the tense final hours of the Bali COP two years ago and the succession of interventions in the final plenary that forced the United States to give way and join the AWG-LCA process. But how Copenhagen is going to finish is still anybody's guess.