Guest commentary: From behind the cordon

18 December 2009

From behind the cordon

Tight security and logistical and administrative difficulties mean that NGOs, including “Business NGOs”, have been allowed very scant access to the negotiations in their final hours. Our team is still “on the inside”.

The agonising wait

Technical discussions were restarted yesterday in order to provide a last opportunity to clarify texts before they are handed up to Ministers for discussion. Meetings ran well into the night.  

Some areas have made significant progress, including work on technology transfer. The Parties have agreed on the establishment and functions of a Technological Executive Committee and a Technology Climate Centre. However, issues concerning intellectual property rights remain and will be sent up to the political level.
 
In many other areas, including important issues relating to changes to the Clean Development Mechanism and the more technical aspects of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) it has not, at the time of writing, been possible to garner consensus in advance of passing issues up to Ministers. It appears that shipping and aviation emissions may fail to be a substantial part of the agreed outcome.
 

Acronyms that change the world

Like all technical subjects, climate change has more than its fair share of industry-specific acronyms. This can be particularly frustrating for those not familiar with the subject. Acronyms don’t always move out of the mundane and into the limelight, but there are some, like “SOS” and “BBC” that have assumed particular significance.

Yesterday, “MRV” (monitoring reporting and verification) hit the press and popular media in a way that it has never done before. MRV (or “transparency” as it has been rebranded) has a number of essential functions, including ensuring the environmental integrity of emissions trading schemes (ie that when you buy a carbon allowance, it represents a tonne of emissions that the atmosphere “feels”). MRV of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) by developing countries, has become one of the cornerstones of resolving the current difficulties around “getting it done” in Copenhagen. If there is a successful outcome later today one of the reasons will be that industrialised countries have been able to get comfortable that such “actions” are sufficiently “transparent” to be sure that the agreement will lead to actual emissions reductions in developing countries. 

Hair Force 2?

The presence of Secretary of State Clinton, whose hair appears to have increased in size exponentially to the scale of US’s financial commitment to combating climate change, first caused a stir at the hotel where many were meeting this morning and then on arrival at Bella Center. “Does this mean Obama isn’t coming?” many asked.

The Secretary of State held a press conference yesterday and took the opportunity to announce the US’ commitment to jointly mobilising $100 bn worth of financing by 2020. This funding is conditional on reaching a strong agreement here of all major economies containing meaningful measures on mitigation and transparency. In the absence of such an agreement she warned there would be no finance. There must, she said, be a common effort. She underlined the key role for public and private financing and said that there would be money for forestry and adaptation. 

Finance 

Finance is another essential part of the Copenhagen outcome and there was much speculation as to whether the US offer would have the effect of “unlocking” the negotiations. Some were positive, others pointed out that $100 billion would make a difference, but would still leave a gap of about $100 billionn as the UNFCCC says we need about $200 billion. It should also be noted that at least 50% of the $100 billion is likely to come from the carbon markets. A number of other short-term and longer-term finance options are on the table.

The wait is nearly over 

So the wait is nearly over, and we’re ready for a long day of speculation and anticipation ahead. We hope that you will join us for our final blog from Copenhagen over the weekend.

 

(c) 2009 Norton Rose 2009

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